It's been a busy year trying to volunteer my time as a local chapter coordinator and editor at zietnews.org, such that i haven't been able to publish a blog in over a year. Do not fear as my draft folder has been growing and growing as i write notes for procrastinated blogs. Today marks my return to the blogosphere and i've chosen an article in today's Huffington Post to return with, entitled America's Ten Disappearing Industries.
In the concise style of this blog I'm simply going to list the industries and give you a quick analysis as to why said industry is disappearing. I encourage all my readers to question my analysis and do further research into my comments. I guarantee it will take you on a wild ride. And now onto the list:
#10 - Telecommunications - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -11 percent
This is an easy one, Moore's Law is allowing us to create smarter more efficient devices that allow us to do more with less. The more efficient and robust a technology becomes the smaller the industry required to maintain it becomes. It used to be that you needed a pager, a fax machine, a land line, an internet connection, a cable subscription and a mobile phone account. With my current smart mobile device i have access to all of the above functionality with a single mobile voice/data account at a fraction of the price in hardware and service cost.
#9 - Banking - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -11 percent
Online banking and ATM's adding to the already ubiquitous trend of technological unemployment which is causing a decline in consumer spending power which causes a decline in qualifications for borrowing, which causes a decline in investment leveraged spending, which causes a decline in banking revenues, and the cycle continues.
#8 - Construction - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -12 percent
Austerity measures due to the global debt crisis are decreasing infrastructure spending by global governments. Private sector construction is taking a beating due to the same decreased consumer spending mentioned in the previous point. The decrease in size of this industry further results in more unemployment and further consumer spending power decline, and the cycle continues.
#7 - Automotive - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -13 percent
I hope you're starting to see a re-occuring trend here with the consumer spending-decline-cycle thing. But this industry gets the added bonus of global peak oil production being passed and oil reserve depletion causing a rise in the price of oil eating away at profit margins, causing layoffs and reducing spending power etc. The high price of gasoline is also decreasing demand for the uber profitable, high horsepower, sports cars, SUV's and luxury vehicles. Environmental impact is also making personal internal combustion engine powered vehicles less popular with the masses.
#6 - Retail - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -15 percent
Online shopping and other related advancements in technology have caused increases in efficiency and thus brick and mortar layoffs are the result. Reduced consumer spending causes declines in revenue and resulting layoffs. Manufacturing efficiency is creating product abundance and perfect competition that drives prices and profit margins down to zero causing more layoffs. Advancements in 3-d printing which will democratize product manufacturing will not help either.
#5 - Supermarkets - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -20 percent
see above
#4 - Capital Markets - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -21 percent
This is the vampire of the bunch. It feeds off the success of other industries since it is merely an exchange facilitator. When all other industries take a hit, wall street cannot "tax" non existent transactions. No exchange (i.e.business), no fees for facilitation. Investment depends on industry growth, no growth, investments go south thus reducing spending power from investment losses.
#3 - Warehousing - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -25 percent
Real time Point of Sale (POS) data makes Just-In-Time (JIT) delivery even more effective and efficient reducing the need for warehousing. Purchase orders are filled on demand. Global logistics are simplifying the transit routes causing the need for fewer distribution centers (DC's). Technological unemployment at it's best.
#2 - Restaurants - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -26 percent
Restaurants move in tandem with retail. Reduced consumer spending due to technological unemployment and you close doors due to reduced demand. More home cooking as well as a move toward healthy organic food is making major food franchises buckle.
#1 - Newspapers - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -28 percent
Do i really need to explain this one? I'm sure anyone reading this digital blog will understand the implications of Journalism 2.0.
The big question is, who will replace the GDP of these dying industries? I'm afraid the answer is, nobody. The decline in these industries is not due to a failure within the monetary market system but is, by design, an expected result of it.
In the concise style of this blog I'm simply going to list the industries and give you a quick analysis as to why said industry is disappearing. I encourage all my readers to question my analysis and do further research into my comments. I guarantee it will take you on a wild ride. And now onto the list:
#10 - Telecommunications - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -11 percent
This is an easy one, Moore's Law is allowing us to create smarter more efficient devices that allow us to do more with less. The more efficient and robust a technology becomes the smaller the industry required to maintain it becomes. It used to be that you needed a pager, a fax machine, a land line, an internet connection, a cable subscription and a mobile phone account. With my current smart mobile device i have access to all of the above functionality with a single mobile voice/data account at a fraction of the price in hardware and service cost.
#9 - Banking - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -11 percent
Online banking and ATM's adding to the already ubiquitous trend of technological unemployment which is causing a decline in consumer spending power which causes a decline in qualifications for borrowing, which causes a decline in investment leveraged spending, which causes a decline in banking revenues, and the cycle continues.
#8 - Construction - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -12 percent
Austerity measures due to the global debt crisis are decreasing infrastructure spending by global governments. Private sector construction is taking a beating due to the same decreased consumer spending mentioned in the previous point. The decrease in size of this industry further results in more unemployment and further consumer spending power decline, and the cycle continues.
#7 - Automotive - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -13 percent
I hope you're starting to see a re-occuring trend here with the consumer spending-decline-cycle thing. But this industry gets the added bonus of global peak oil production being passed and oil reserve depletion causing a rise in the price of oil eating away at profit margins, causing layoffs and reducing spending power etc. The high price of gasoline is also decreasing demand for the uber profitable, high horsepower, sports cars, SUV's and luxury vehicles. Environmental impact is also making personal internal combustion engine powered vehicles less popular with the masses.
#6 - Retail - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -15 percent
Online shopping and other related advancements in technology have caused increases in efficiency and thus brick and mortar layoffs are the result. Reduced consumer spending causes declines in revenue and resulting layoffs. Manufacturing efficiency is creating product abundance and perfect competition that drives prices and profit margins down to zero causing more layoffs. Advancements in 3-d printing which will democratize product manufacturing will not help either.
#5 - Supermarkets - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -20 percent
see above
#4 - Capital Markets - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -21 percent
This is the vampire of the bunch. It feeds off the success of other industries since it is merely an exchange facilitator. When all other industries take a hit, wall street cannot "tax" non existent transactions. No exchange (i.e.business), no fees for facilitation. Investment depends on industry growth, no growth, investments go south thus reducing spending power from investment losses.
#3 - Warehousing - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -25 percent
Real time Point of Sale (POS) data makes Just-In-Time (JIT) delivery even more effective and efficient reducing the need for warehousing. Purchase orders are filled on demand. Global logistics are simplifying the transit routes causing the need for fewer distribution centers (DC's). Technological unemployment at it's best.
#2 - Restaurants - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -26 percent
Restaurants move in tandem with retail. Reduced consumer spending due to technological unemployment and you close doors due to reduced demand. More home cooking as well as a move toward healthy organic food is making major food franchises buckle.
#1 - Newspapers - Change in industry size, 2007 to 2011: -28 percent
Do i really need to explain this one? I'm sure anyone reading this digital blog will understand the implications of Journalism 2.0.
The big question is, who will replace the GDP of these dying industries? I'm afraid the answer is, nobody. The decline in these industries is not due to a failure within the monetary market system but is, by design, an expected result of it.
Marshall Brain - Automation & Unemployment
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